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Southampton vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Southampton
Southampton
Preview
19:45
Burnley
Burnley
12/9/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20
Big match
38%
Burnley
model favours
35%27%38%

Southampton score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Southampton35%
×Draw27%
Burnley38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.20
Burnley
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.83
Burnley
1.69

allows per match

Southampton
0.83
Burnley
0.56

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
62%
Southampton or Burnley
73%
Draw or Burnley
65%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
15%
Burnley wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
70%
Southampton 2+ goals
34%
Southampton 3+ goals
12%
Burnley 1+ goals
72%
Burnley 2+ goals
36%
Burnley 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
48%
Burnley (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.83 + Burnley defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Burnley attack 1.69 + Southampton defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Southampton scores more
35%
level
27%
Burnley scores more
38%

Burnley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%
  • Southampton have scored in 12 games running
  • 81% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Southampton
DDWD
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Southampton host Burnley

December 9, 2026: Southampton take on Burnley in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.