Southampton 3–2 Burnley: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Burnley

N. Redmond 66'

D. Ings 42'

S. Armstrong 31'

M. Vydra 28'

C. Wood 12' (pen)

4/4/2021

Premier League · Round 30St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Southampton46%

×Draw25%

Burnley29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.16

Southampton

1.52

Burnley

1.16

Southampton creates 31% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 157 away

1.35

creates per match

0.96

1.36

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Southampton

1.35

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Southampton

1.36

Burnley

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

71%

Southampton or Burnley

75%

Draw or Burnley

54%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

23%

Burnley wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

78%

Southampton 2+ goals

45%

Southampton 3+ goals

20%

Burnley 1+ goals

69%

Burnley 2+ goals

32%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

61%

Burnley (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 173 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.35 + Burnley defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Burnley attack 0.96 + Southampton defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Southampton scores more

46%

level

25%

Burnley scores more

29%

Southampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Redmond

Southampton · F

8.5

Match Events

10'

Erik PietersGoal cancelled

12'

C. WoodPenalty

28'

M. Vydra↳ C. Wood

31'

S. Armstrong↳ D. Ings

33'

C. Taylor← E. Pieters

42'

D. Ings↳ N. Redmond

66'

N. Redmond↳ T. Walcott

78'

J. Rodriguez← M. Vydra

79'

M. Salisu← S. Armstrong

86'

C. Adams← D. Ings

87'

M. Djenepo← T. Walcott

89'

L. Richardson← J. Guðmundsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonBurnley

Overview

53%Possession47%

24Total Shots7

6Corners7

11Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots7

9On Target5

3Off Target2

12Blocked0

12Inside Box5

12Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

424Total Passes352

324Accurate Passes243

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

0Offsides1