Burnley 2–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southampton

N. Collins 44'

C. Roberts 12'

4/21/2022

Premier League · Round 30Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Burnley40%

×Draw27%

Southampton33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Burnley

1.33

Southampton

1.19

Burnley creates 12% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 173 away

1.04

creates per match

1.05

1.32

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Burnley

1.04

Southampton

1.05

allows per match

Burnley

1.32

Southampton

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

67%

Burnley or Southampton

73%

Draw or Southampton

60%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

18%

Southampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

38%

Burnley 3+ goals

15%

Southampton 1+ goals

70%

Southampton 2+ goals

33%

Southampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

55%

Southampton (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Southampton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Southampton attack 1.05 + Burnley defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burnley scores more

40%

level

27%

Southampton scores more

33%

Burnley at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Brownhill

Burnley · M

8.7

Match Events

12'

C. Roberts↳ J. Brownhill

38'

Jack Cork

44'

N. Collins↳ J. Brownhill

45+1'

Nathan CollinsGoal confirmed

64'

Jay RodriguezGoal cancelled

65'

N. Redmond← M. Elyounoussi

66'

A. Lennon← M. Cornet

66'

C. Adams← S. Armstrong

73'

James Tarkowski

73'

Jan Bednarek

78'

M. Vydra← W. Weghorst

79'

Romain Perraud

83'

V. Livramento← K. Walker-Peters

87'

James TarkowskiPenalty cancelled

87'

M. Lowton← D. McNeil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleySouthampton

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots11

10Corners10

7Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target3

4Off Target4

6Blocked4

11Inside Box10

5Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

354Total Passes479

244Accurate Passes396

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2