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Southampton vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Southampton
Southampton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
8/12/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Southampton42%
×Draw23%
Burnley35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.69
Burnley
1.53

Southampton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.28
Burnley
0.79

allows per match

Southampton
2.28
Burnley
2.10

finishing

Southampton+0.29scores more
Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
65%
Southampton or Burnley
77%
Draw or Burnley
58%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
21%
Burnley wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
82%
Southampton 2+ goals
50%
Southampton 3+ goals
24%
Burnley 1+ goals
78%
Burnley 2+ goals
45%
Burnley 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
54%
Burnley (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 7 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.28 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Burnley attack 0.79 + Southampton defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Southampton scores more
42%
level
23%
Burnley scores more
35%

Southampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. McCarthySouthamptonSouthampton · G
8.5

Match Events

15'
Jack Cork
56'
D. Ings← S. Armstrong
56'
M. Elyounoussi← Cédric Soares
72'
M. Gabbiadini← C. Austin
73'
S. Vokes← C. Wood
76'
A. Barnes← J. Hendrick
87'
C. Taylor← J. Guðmunds­son

Possession

47%Southampton

Shots

18Southampton

Pass accuracy

50%Southampton

Statistics

SouthamptonBurnley
Overview
47%Possession53%
18Total Shots16
8Corners5
10Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots16
3On Target6
6Off Target6
9Blocked4
9Inside Box10
9Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
369Total Passes408
280Accurate Passes311
76%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Southampton vs Burnley

Southampton and Burnley drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 12, 2018.

Burnley controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton.