Southampton 1–0 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa

A. Armstrong 3'

11/5/2021

Premier League · Round 11St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Southampton34%

×Draw23%

Aston Villa43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.70

Southampton

1.48

Aston Villa

1.70

Aston Villa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 31 away

1.28

creates per match

1.13

2.28

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Southampton

1.28

Aston Villa

1.13

allows per match

Southampton

2.28

Aston Villa

1.67

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Southampton+0.29scores more

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

57%

Southampton or Aston Villa

77%

Draw or Aston Villa

66%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

16%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

77%

Southampton 2+ goals

43%

Southampton 3+ goals

19%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

82%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

51%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

44%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 7 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.28 + Aston Villa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Southampton defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Southampton scores more

34%

level

23%

Aston Villa scores more

43%

Aston Villa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Buendía

Aston Villa · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

11'

56'

62'

63'

J. Ramsey← M. Nakamba

65'

Axel Tuanzebe

71'

C. Archer← E. Buendía

76'

I. Diallo← M. Elyounoussi

79'

K. Davis← A. El Ghazi

81'

A. Broja← A. Armstrong

90+1'

Mohammed Salisu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonAston

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots14

10Corners8

12Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots14

3On Target3

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

431Total Passes327

347Accurate Passes234

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2