Aston Villa 4–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southampton

D. Ings 54'

Philippe Coutinho 52'

Douglas Luiz 44'

O. Watkins 9'

3/5/2022

Premier League · Round 28Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Aston Villa51%

×Draw24%

Southampton25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.09

Aston Villa

1.69

Southampton

1.09

Aston Villa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

1.45

creates per match

0.90

1.29

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Southampton

0.90

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Southampton

1.92

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Southampton-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

75%

Aston Villa or Southampton

76%

Draw or Southampton

49%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

28%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

82%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

50%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

24%

Southampton 1+ goals

66%

Southampton 2+ goals

30%

Southampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

68%

Southampton (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Southampton defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Southampton attack 0.90 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aston Villa scores more

51%

level

24%

Southampton scores more

25%

Aston Villa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Ings

Aston Villa · F

8.3

Match Events

9'

O. Watkins↳ D. Ings

44'

Douglas Luiz↳ Philippe Coutinho

46'

Y. Valery← M. Elyounoussi

52'

Philippe Coutinho↳ D. Ings

54'

D. Ings↳ M. Cash

58'

K. Walker-Peters← R. Perraud

68'

71'

74'

77'

77'

I. Diallo← Oriol Romeu

81'

E. Buendía← Philippe Coutinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonSouthampton

Overview

38%Possession62%

14Total Shots11

4Corners7

10Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots11

9On Target1

4Off Target7

1Blocked3

11Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

353Total Passes556

261Accurate Passes469

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1