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South Sudan vs Mali — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

South Sudan
South Sudan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mali
Mali
9/9/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Juba Stadium (Juba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Sudan29%
×Draw24%
Mali47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Sudan
1.23
Mali
1.63

Mali creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

South Sudan
2.00
Mali
1.00

allows per match

South Sudan
2.25
Mali
0.45

finishing

South Sudan+0.00on par
Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Sudan ↓

Mali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

South Sudan or draw
53%
South Sudan or Mali
76%
Draw or Mali
71%

Winning margin

South Sudan wins by 2+
12%
Mali wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

South Sudan 1+ goals
71%
South Sudan 2+ goals
35%
South Sudan 3+ goals
13%
Mali 1+ goals
80%
Mali 2+ goals
48%
Mali 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

South Sudan (draw refunded)
38%
Mali (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Sudan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Mali away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Sudan attack 2.00 + Mali defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mali attack 1.00 + South Sudan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

South Sudan scores more
29%
level
24%
Mali scores more
47%

Mali at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: South Sudan 0–3 Mali

Mali beat South Sudan 3-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Juba Stadium (Juba).