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Mali vs South Sudan — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Mali
Mali
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
South Sudan
South Sudan
Adama Traore I 90'
M. Djenepo 27'
K. Coulibaly 18'
3/23/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 7Stade 26 Mars (Bamako)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mali81%
×Draw15%
South Sudan4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
2.16
South Sudan
0.28

Mali creates 671% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mali
1.56
South Sudan
0.00

allows per match

Mali
0.56
South Sudan
2.75

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
South Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

South Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mali or draw
96%
Mali or South Sudan
85%
Draw or South Sudan
19%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
56%
South Sudan wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
88%
Mali 2+ goals
63%
Mali 3+ goals
36%
South Sudan 1+ goals
24%
South Sudan 2+ goals
3%
South Sudan 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
96%
South Sudan (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

South Sudan away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 1.56 + South Sudan defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

South Sudan attack 0.00 + Mali defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Mali scores more
81%
level
15%
South Sudan scores more
4%

Mali at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Coulibaly
27'
M. Djenepo
90'
Adama Traore I

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mali vs South Sudan

Mali beat South Sudan 3-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on March 23, 2019.

Goals: K. Coulibaly (18'), M. Djenepo (27'), Adama Traore I (90').

The match was played at Stade 26 Mars (Bamako).