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South Shields vs Scarborough Athletic — League #50 2026

South Shields
South Shields
Preview
19:45
Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic
12/8/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 21
Big match
68%
South Shields
model favours
68%20%12%

South Shields score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

South Shields68%
×Draw20%
Scarborough Athletic12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
1.95
Scarborough Athletic
0.65

South Shields creates 200% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

creates per match

South Shields
1.90
Scarborough Athletic
0.40

allows per match

South Shields
0.90
Scarborough Athletic
2.00

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
Scarborough Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Scarborough Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
88%
South Shields or Scarborough Athletic
80%
Draw or Scarborough Athletic
32%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
42%
Scarborough Athletic wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
86%
South Shields 2+ goals
58%
South Shields 3+ goals
31%
Scarborough Athletic 1+ goals
48%
Scarborough Athletic 2+ goals
14%
Scarborough Athletic 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
86%
Scarborough Athletic (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Scarborough Athletic away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Scarborough Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Scarborough Athletic attack 0.40 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

South Shields scores more
68%
level
20%
Scarborough Athletic scores more
12%

South Shields at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • South Shields have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • South Shields sit 1, Scarborough Athletic 21 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Shields
LDLWL
Athletic
DDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Shields face Scarborough Athletic (League #50)

League #50 returns with South Shields hosting Scarborough Athletic. Match starts December 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.