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Scarborough Athletic vs South Shields — League #50 2026

Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
South Shields
South Shields
J. Hull 90+2'
T. Chapman 83'
W. Jenkins 78'
S. Finch 25'
2/10/2026League #50League #50 · North - 32Mounting Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Scarborough Athletic34%
×Draw25%
South Shields41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scarborough Athletic
1.35
South Shields
1.50

South Shields creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 28 away

creates per match

Scarborough Athletic
1.25
South Shields
1.50

allows per match

Scarborough Athletic
1.50
South Shields
1.46

finishing

Scarborough Athletic+0.00on par
South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scarborough Athletic ↓

South Shields →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Scarborough Athletic or draw
59%
Scarborough Athletic or South Shields
75%
Draw or South Shields
66%

Winning margin

Scarborough Athletic wins by 2+
15%
South Shields wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Scarborough Athletic 1+ goals
74%
Scarborough Athletic 2+ goals
39%
Scarborough Athletic 3+ goals
15%
South Shields 1+ goals
78%
South Shields 2+ goals
44%
South Shields 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Scarborough Athletic (draw refunded)
46%
South Shields (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scarborough Athletic at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scarborough Athletic attack 1.25 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

South Shields attack 1.50 + Scarborough Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scarborough Athletic scores more
34%
level
25%
South Shields scores more
41%

South Shields at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
S. Finch
78'
W. Jenkins
83'
T. Chapman
90+2'
J. Hull

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Scarborough Athletic vs South Shields

Scarborough Athletic and South Shields drew 2-2 in League #50 on February 10, 2026.

Goals: S. Finch (25'), W. Jenkins (78'), T. Chapman (83'), J. Hull (90+2').

The match was played at Mounting Systems Stadium.