Scarborough Athletic 1–2 South Shields

Scarborough Athletic

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

South Shields

L. Maloney 86'

K. Crossley 76'

P. Blackett 60' (pen)

8/31/2024

League #50 · North - 6Flamingo Land Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Scarborough Athletic34%

×Draw25%

South Shields41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scarborough AthleticExpected goals in this matchSouth Shields

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.50

Scarborough Athletic

1.35

South Shields

1.50

South Shields creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 28 away

1.25

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Scarborough Athletic

1.25

South Shields

1.50

allows per match

Scarborough Athletic

1.50

South Shields

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scarborough Athletic+0.00on par

South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scarborough Athletic ↓

South Shields →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Scarborough Athletic or draw

59%

Scarborough Athletic or South Shields

75%

Draw or South Shields

66%

Winning margin

Scarborough Athletic wins by 2+

15%

South Shields wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scarborough Athletic 1+ goals

74%

Scarborough Athletic 2+ goals

39%

Scarborough Athletic 3+ goals

15%

South Shields 1+ goals

78%

South Shields 2+ goals

44%

South Shields 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Scarborough Athletic (draw refunded)

46%

South Shields (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scarborough Athletic at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scarborough Athletic attack 1.25 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

South Shields attack 1.50 + Scarborough Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scarborough Athletic scores more

34%

level

25%

South Shields scores more

41%

South Shields at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Tear← L. Colville

60'

P. BlackettPenalty

61'

H. Green← M. Duckworth

71'

A. Wiles← F. Mulhern

71'

C. Wilson← K. Glynn

73'

W. Jenkins← C. Shepherd

76'

K. Crossley

77'

E. McGowan← P. Blackett

80'

M. Maltby← A. Purver

86'

L. Maloney

Scarborough

South

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Greening

11'▲D. Tear←▼L. Colville

61'▲H. Green←▼M. Duckworth

71'▲A. Wiles←▼F. Mulhern

71'▲C. Wilson←▼K. Glynn

80'▲M. Maltby←▼A. Purver

Scarborough Athletic substitutes

TearGreenWilesWilsonMaltby

Manager: E. Dickman

73'▲W. Jenkins←▼C. Shepherd

77'▲E. McGowan←▼P. Blackett

South Shields substitutes

JenkinsMcGowanTaylorSeymourWatts