South Shields 1–0 Scarborough Athletic

South Shields

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Scarborough Athletic

T. Broadbent 68'

8/19/2023

League #50 · North - 41st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

South Shields68%

×Draw20%

Scarborough Athletic12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South ShieldsExpected goals in this matchScarborough Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.65

South Shields

1.95

Scarborough Athletic

0.65

South Shields creates 200% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

1.90

creates per match

0.40

0.90

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

South Shields

1.90

Scarborough Athletic

0.40

allows per match

South Shields

0.90

Scarborough Athletic

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par

Scarborough Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Scarborough Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

South Shields or draw

88%

South Shields or Scarborough Athletic

80%

Draw or Scarborough Athletic

32%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+

42%

Scarborough Athletic wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals

86%

South Shields 2+ goals

58%

South Shields 3+ goals

31%

Scarborough Athletic 1+ goals

48%

Scarborough Athletic 2+ goals

14%

Scarborough Athletic 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)

86%

Scarborough Athletic (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Scarborough Athletic away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Scarborough Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Scarborough Athletic attack 0.40 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

South Shields scores more

68%

level

20%

Scarborough Athletic scores more

12%

South Shields at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

C. Marshall← C. Durose

67'

67'

68'

73'

74'

M. Heaney← P. Blackett

77'

H. Green← A. Purver

South

Scarborough

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Arca

67'▲Joao Gomes←▼L. James

67'▲M. Woods←▼J. Abbey

74'▲M. Heaney←▼P. Blackett

South Shields substitutes

GomesWoodsHeaneyMorseBriggs

Manager: J. Greening

62'▲C. Marshall←▼C. Durose

73'▲J. Charles←▼D. Tear

77'▲H. Green←▼A. Purver

Scarborough Athletic substitutes

MarshallCharlesGreenCracknellHutton