South Shields 3–0 Radcliffe: Result & Stats

South Shields

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radcliffe

C. Scott 90', 52'

C. Kelly 7'

9/2/2025

League #50 · North - 71st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Shields65%

×Draw23%

Radcliffe12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South ShieldsExpected goals in this matchRadcliffe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.57

South Shields

1.70

Radcliffe

0.57

South Shields creates 198% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 4 away

1.90

creates per match

0.25

0.90

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

South Shields

1.90

Radcliffe

0.25

allows per match

South Shields

0.90

Radcliffe

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par

Radcliffe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Radcliffe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

South Shields or draw

88%

South Shields or Radcliffe

77%

Draw or Radcliffe

35%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+

37%

Radcliffe wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals

82%

South Shields 2+ goals

51%

South Shields 3+ goals

24%

Radcliffe 1+ goals

43%

Radcliffe 2+ goals

11%

Radcliffe 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)

84%

Radcliffe (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Radcliffe away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Radcliffe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Radcliffe attack 0.25 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

South Shields scores more

65%

level

23%

Radcliffe scores more

12%

South Shields at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

C. Kelly

52'

C. Scott

90'

L. Maynard

90'

C. Scott

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff