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Radcliffe vs South Shields — League #50 2026

Radcliffe
Radcliffe
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
South Shields
South Shields
R. Clegg 82'
D. Ball 33'
W. Jenkins 61'
S. McGurk 58'
O. Bainbridge 51'
P. Blackett 6', 3'
4/11/2026League #50League #50 · North - 44Neuven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Radcliffe42%
×Draw22%
South Shields35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radcliffe
1.83
South Shields
1.65

Radcliffe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

creates per match

Radcliffe
2.20
South Shields
1.50

allows per match

Radcliffe
1.80
South Shields
1.46

finishing

Radcliffe+0.00on par
South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radcliffe ↓

South Shields →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Radcliffe or draw
65%
Radcliffe or South Shields
78%
Draw or South Shields
58%

Winning margin

Radcliffe wins by 2+
23%
South Shields wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Radcliffe 1+ goals
84%
Radcliffe 2+ goals
54%
Radcliffe 3+ goals
28%
South Shields 1+ goals
81%
South Shields 2+ goals
49%
South Shields 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Radcliffe (draw refunded)
55%
South Shields (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radcliffe at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radcliffe attack 2.20 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.83

South Shields attack 1.50 + Radcliffe defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radcliffe scores more
42%
level
22%
South Shields scores more
35%

Radcliffe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radcliffe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
P. Blackett
6'
P. Blackett
33'
D. Ball
51'
O. Bainbridge
58'
S. McGurk
61'
W. Jenkins
82'
R. Clegg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: Radcliffe 2–5 South Shields

South Shields beat Radcliffe 5-2 in League #50 on April 11, 2026.

Goals: P. Blackett (3', 6'), D. Ball (33'), O. Bainbridge (51'), S. McGurk (58'), W. Jenkins (61'), R. Clegg (82').

The match was played at Neuven Stadium in Radcliffe, Greater Manchester.