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South Shields vs Curzon Ashton — League #50 2026

South Shields
South Shields
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton
D. Dodds 78'
P. Blackett 15'
S. McGurk 3'
3/7/2026League #50League #50 · North - 371st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

South Shields49%
×Draw25%
Curzon Ashton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
1.58
Curzon Ashton
1.08

South Shields creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

creates per match

South Shields
1.90
Curzon Ashton
1.27

allows per match

South Shields
0.90
Curzon Ashton
1.27

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
Curzon Ashton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Curzon Ashton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
74%
South Shields or Curzon Ashton
75%
Draw or Curzon Ashton
51%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
25%
Curzon Ashton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
79%
South Shields 2+ goals
47%
South Shields 3+ goals
21%
Curzon Ashton 1+ goals
66%
Curzon Ashton 2+ goals
29%
Curzon Ashton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
65%
Curzon Ashton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Curzon Ashton away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Curzon Ashton defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

Curzon Ashton attack 1.27 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

South Shields scores more
49%
level
25%
Curzon Ashton scores more
26%

South Shields at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
S. McGurk
15'
P. Blackett
78'
D. Dodds

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: South Shields 3–0 Curzon Ashton

South Shields beat Curzon Ashton 3-0 in League #50 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: S. McGurk (3'), P. Blackett (15'), D. Dodds (78').

The match was played at 1st Cloud Arena in South Shields, Tyne and Wear.