Curzon Ashton 1–2 South Shields: Result & Stats

Curzon Ashton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

South Shields

B. Holmes 74'

C. Kelly 65'

P. Blackett 18'

9/20/2025

League #50 · North - 9Tameside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Curzon Ashton39%

×Draw26%

South Shields35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curzon AshtonExpected goals in this matchSouth Shields

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

Curzon Ashton

1.40

South Shields

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

1.33

creates per match

1.50

1.11

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Curzon Ashton

1.33

South Shields

1.50

allows per match

Curzon Ashton

1.11

South Shields

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curzon Ashton+0.00on par

South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curzon Ashton ↓

South Shields →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Curzon Ashton or draw

65%

Curzon Ashton or South Shields

74%

Draw or South Shields

61%

Winning margin

Curzon Ashton wins by 2+

18%

South Shields wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Curzon Ashton 1+ goals

75%

Curzon Ashton 2+ goals

41%

Curzon Ashton 3+ goals

17%

South Shields 1+ goals

73%

South Shields 2+ goals

38%

South Shields 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Curzon Ashton (draw refunded)

53%

South Shields (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curzon Ashton at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curzon Ashton attack 1.33 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

South Shields attack 1.50 + Curzon Ashton defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Curzon Ashton scores more

39%

level

26%

South Shields scores more

35%

Curzon Ashton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Curzon Ashton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

P. Blackett

65'

C. Kelly

74'

B. Holmes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff