South Melbourne vs Wellington Phoenix — Australia Cup 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
South Melbourne23%
Wellington Phoenix51%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Wellington Phoenix creates 63% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
South Melbourne ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
South Melbourne at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches
Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
South Melbourne attack 0.25 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.93
Wellington Phoenix attack 1.30 + South Melbourne defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Wellington Phoenix at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Wellington Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
South Melbourne substitutes
Head to Head
South Melbourne host Wellington Phoenix on Tuesday, 6 August 2024 at 09:30. The match is part of the Australia Cup 2021/2022 season.
Australia Cup: South Melbourne 1–0 Wellington Phoenix
South Melbourne beat Wellington Phoenix 1-0 in Australia Cup on August 6, 2024.
Goals: H. Sawyer (4').
The match was played at Lakeside Stadium in Melbourne.