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South Melbourne vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2026

South Melbourne
South Melbourne
FT
1 – 0
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
6/30/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 19Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

South Melbourne53%
×Draw24%
Pascoe Vale23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Melbourne
1.76
Pascoe Vale
1.07

South Melbourne creates 64% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 13 away

creates per match

South Melbourne
1.67
Pascoe Vale
0.85

allows per match

South Melbourne
1.29
Pascoe Vale
1.85

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw
77%
South Melbourne or Pascoe Vale
76%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
47%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+
30%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals
83%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
52%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
26%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
66%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
29%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)
70%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 1.67 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + South Melbourne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

South Melbourne scores more
53%
level
24%
Pascoe Vale scores more
23%

South Melbourne at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: South Melbourne 1–0 Pascoe Vale

South Melbourne beat Pascoe Vale 1-0 in Victoria NPL on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne).