Pascoe Vale 2–0 South Melbourne: Result & Stats

Pascoe Vale

FT

2 – 0

South Melbourne

3/22/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 6CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale30%

×Draw23%

South Melbourne48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pascoe ValeExpected goals in this matchSouth Melbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.86

Pascoe Vale

1.42

South Melbourne

1.86

South Melbourne creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 89 away

1.69

creates per match

1.49

2.23

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Pascoe Vale

1.69

South Melbourne

1.49

allows per match

Pascoe Vale

2.23

South Melbourne

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

South Melbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw

52%

Pascoe Vale or South Melbourne

77%

Draw or South Melbourne

70%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

13%

South Melbourne wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

76%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

41%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

17%

South Melbourne 1+ goals

84%

South Melbourne 2+ goals

55%

South Melbourne 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

38%

South Melbourne (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more

30%

level

23%

South Melbourne scores more

48%

South Melbourne at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff