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South Melbourne vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2026

South Melbourne
South Melbourne
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Moreland City
Moreland City
5/26/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 15Lakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

South Melbourne64%
×Draw18%
Moreland City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Melbourne
2.52
Moreland City
1.29

South Melbourne creates 95% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 26 away

creates per match

South Melbourne
1.66
Moreland City
1.31

allows per match

South Melbourne
1.28
Moreland City
3.38

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw
82%
South Melbourne or Moreland City
82%
Draw or Moreland City
36%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+
42%
Moreland City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals
92%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
71%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
45%
Moreland City 1+ goals
72%
Moreland City 2+ goals
37%
Moreland City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)
78%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 1.66 + Moreland City defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.52

Moreland City attack 1.31 + South Melbourne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

South Melbourne scores more
64%
level
18%
Moreland City scores more
18%

South Melbourne at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: South Melbourne 4–2 Moreland City

South Melbourne beat Moreland City 4-2 in Victoria NPL on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Lakeside Stadium in Melbourne.