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Moreland City vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Moreland City
Moreland City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
2/17/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 2CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Moreland City23%
×Draw23%
South Melbourne54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland City
1.07
South Melbourne
1.79

South Melbourne creates 67% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 89 away

creates per match

Moreland City
1.00
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Moreland City
2.08
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Moreland City+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland City ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Moreland City or draw
46%
Moreland City or South Melbourne
77%
Draw or South Melbourne
77%

Winning margin

Moreland City wins by 2+
8%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Moreland City 1+ goals
66%
Moreland City 2+ goals
29%
Moreland City 3+ goals
9%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
83%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
53%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Moreland City (draw refunded)
29%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland City attack 1.00 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Moreland City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Moreland City scores more
23%
level
23%
South Melbourne scores more
54%

South Melbourne at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreland City vs South Melbourne

South Melbourne beat Moreland City 1-0 in Victoria NPL on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.