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South Melbourne vs Manningham United Blues — Victoria NPL 2026

South Melbourne
South Melbourne
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manningham United Blues
Manningham United Blues
6/7/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 17Lakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

South Melbourne63%
×Draw19%
Manningham United Blues18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Melbourne
2.40
Manningham United Blues
1.21

South Melbourne creates 98% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 13 away

creates per match

South Melbourne
1.66
Manningham United Blues
1.15

allows per match

South Melbourne
1.28
Manningham United Blues
3.15

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par
Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Manningham United Blues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw
82%
South Melbourne or Manningham United Blues
81%
Draw or Manningham United Blues
37%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+
41%
Manningham United Blues wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals
91%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
69%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
42%
Manningham United Blues 1+ goals
70%
Manningham United Blues 2+ goals
34%
Manningham United Blues 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)
78%
Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 1.66 + Manningham United Blues defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.40

Manningham United Blues attack 1.15 + South Melbourne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

South Melbourne scores more
63%
level
19%
Manningham United Blues scores more
18%

South Melbourne at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Melbourne vs Manningham United Blues

South Melbourne beat Manningham United Blues 2-0 in Victoria NPL on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Lakeside Stadium in Melbourne.