Manningham United Blues 2–5 South Melbourne

Manningham United Blues

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 3

South Melbourne

3/2/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 4Pettys Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Manningham United Blues32%

×Draw22%

South Melbourne46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manningham United BluesExpected goals in this matchSouth Melbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.94

Manningham United Blues

1.61

South Melbourne

1.94

South Melbourne creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 89 away

2.08

creates per match

1.49

2.38

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Manningham United Blues

2.08

South Melbourne

1.49

allows per match

Manningham United Blues

2.38

South Melbourne

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manningham United Blues ↓

South Melbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Manningham United Blues or draw

54%

Manningham United Blues or South Melbourne

78%

Draw or South Melbourne

68%

Winning margin

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+

16%

South Melbourne wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals

80%

Manningham United Blues 2+ goals

48%

Manningham United Blues 3+ goals

22%

South Melbourne 1+ goals

86%

South Melbourne 2+ goals

58%

South Melbourne 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)

42%

South Melbourne (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manningham United Blues at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manningham United Blues attack 2.08 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Manningham United Blues scores more

32%

level

22%

South Melbourne scores more

46%

South Melbourne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff