South Korea 0–0 Saudi Arabia: Result & Stats

South Korea

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Saudi Arabia

12/31/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Bani Yas Stadium (Abū ẓabī (Abu Dhabi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

South Korea51%

×Draw25%

Saudi Arabia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South KoreaExpected goals in this matchSaudi Arabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.03

South Korea

1.63

Saudi Arabia

1.03

South Korea creates 58% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

South Korea

1.50

Saudi Arabia

1.00

allows per match

South Korea

1.06

Saudi Arabia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Korea+0.00on par

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea ↓

Saudi Arabia →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

South Korea or draw

76%

South Korea or Saudi Arabia

75%

Draw or Saudi Arabia

49%

Winning margin

South Korea wins by 2+

27%

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

Team goals

South Korea 1+ goals

80%

South Korea 2+ goals

48%

South Korea 3+ goals

22%

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

64%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

28%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

South Korea (draw refunded)

68%

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Korea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Saudi Arabia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Korea attack 1.50 + Saudi Arabia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + South Korea defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

South Korea scores more

51%

level

25%

Saudi Arabia scores more

24%

South Korea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "South Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff