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Saudi Arabia vs South Korea — Asian Cup 2019

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
South Korea
South Koreaadvanced
1/30/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Round of 16Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saudi Arabia50%
×Draw27%
South Korea23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
1.42
South Korea
0.88

Saudi Arabia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.50
South Korea
1.00

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.75
South Korea
1.33

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
South Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

South Korea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
77%
Saudi Arabia or South Korea
73%
Draw or South Korea
50%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
24%
South Korea wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
76%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
41%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
17%
South Korea 1+ goals
59%
South Korea 2+ goals
22%
South Korea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
68%
South Korea (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

South Korea away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.50 + South Korea defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

South Korea attack 1.00 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
50%
level
27%
South Korea scores more
23%

Saudi Arabia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia vs South Korea

Saudi Arabia and South Korea drew 1-1 in Asian Cup on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.