South Korea 1–2 Mexico: Result & Stats | World Cup

South Korea

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mexico

Son Heung-Min 90+3'

J. Hernández 66'

C. Vela 26' (pen)

6/23/2018

World Cup · Group Stage - 2Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

South Korea42%

×Draw25%

Mexico33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South KoreaExpected goals in this matchMexico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.32

South Korea

1.52

Mexico

1.32

South Korea creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

1.25

1.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

South Korea

1.80

Mexico

1.25

allows per match

South Korea

1.40

Mexico

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Korea+0.00on par

Mexico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea ↓

Mexico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

South Korea or draw

67%

South Korea or Mexico

75%

Draw or Mexico

58%

Winning margin

South Korea wins by 2+

21%

Mexico wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

South Korea 1+ goals

78%

South Korea 2+ goals

45%

South Korea 3+ goals

20%

Mexico 1+ goals

73%

Mexico 2+ goals

38%

Mexico 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

South Korea (draw refunded)

56%

Mexico (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Korea at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Mexico away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Korea attack 1.80 + Mexico defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mexico attack 1.25 + South Korea defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

South Korea scores more

42%

level

25%

Mexico scores more

33%

South Korea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "South Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Salcedo

Mexico · D

8.2

Match Events

26'

C. VelaPenalty

58'

Young-Gwon Kim

63'

Yong Lee

64'

Lee Seung-Woo← Ju Se-Jong

66'

J. Hernández↳ H. Lozano

68'

R. Márquez← A. Guardado

71'

J. Corona← H. Lozano

72'

Seung-Woo Lee

77'

Jung Woo-Young← Moon Seon-Min

77'

G. dos Santos← C. Vela

80'

Woo-Young Jung

84'

Hong Chul← Kim Min-Woo

90+3'

Son Heung-Min↳ Lee Jae-Sung

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthMexico

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots13

7Corners5

24Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots13

6On Target5

2Off Target7

9Blocked1

6Inside Box7

11Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

344Total Passes476

279Accurate Passes415

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

24Fouls7

4Yellow Cards0