Mexico 2–2 South Korea: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Mexico

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

South Korea

Santiago Giménez 90+4'

Raúl Jiménez 22'

Hyun-gyu Oh 75'

Heung-min Son 65'

9/10/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Geodis Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mexico44%

×Draw25%

South Korea31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchSouth Korea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.29

Mexico

1.57

South Korea

1.29

Mexico creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

1.64

creates per match

1.50

1.09

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mexico

1.64

South Korea

1.50

allows per match

Mexico

1.09

South Korea

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

South Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

South Korea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

69%

Mexico or South Korea

75%

Draw or South Korea

56%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

22%

South Korea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

79%

Mexico 2+ goals

46%

Mexico 3+ goals

21%

South Korea 1+ goals

72%

South Korea 2+ goals

37%

South Korea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

58%

South Korea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

South Korea away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + South Korea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

South Korea attack 1.50 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mexico scores more

44%

level

25%

South Korea scores more

31%

Mexico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Hyun-gyu Oh

South Korea · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

Raúl Jiménez↳ Rodrigo Huescas

36'

Marcel Ruíz

46'

Carlos Rodríguez← Marcel Ruíz

46'

Jin-kyu Kim← Jens Castrop

46'

Heung-min Son← Jun-Ho Bae

62'

Diego Lainez← Germán Berterame

62'

Alexis Vega← Hirving Lozano

62'

Santiago Giménez← Raúl Jiménez

65'

Heung-min Son↳ Hyun-gyu Oh

73'

Sang-bin Jeong← Moon-hwan Kim

73'

Lee Tae-seok← Myeong-jae Lee

75'

Hyun-gyu Oh↳ Kang-in Lee

79'

Jesús Gallardo← Mateo Chávez

79'

Jorge Sánchez← Rodrigo Huescas

80'

Young-woo Seol← Kang-in Lee

87'

Dong-gyeong Lee← Hyun-gyu Oh

90+4'

Santiago Giménez↳ Jorge Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MexicoSouth

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots9

3Corners1

12Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

6Inside Box8

8Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

507Total Passes439

436Accurate Passes378

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1