South Hobart 4–1 Kingborough Lions: Result & Stats

South Hobart

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Kingborough Lions

7/26/2025

Tasmania NPL · Round 15Darcy Street Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

South Hobart51%

×Draw19%

Kingborough Lions30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South HobartExpected goals in this matchKingborough Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.97

South Hobart

2.58

Kingborough Lions

1.97

South Hobart creates 31% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

3.26

creates per match

2.62

1.32

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

South Hobart

3.26

Kingborough Lions

2.62

allows per match

South Hobart

1.32

Kingborough Lions

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Hobart+0.00on par

Kingborough Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Hobart ↓

Kingborough Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

South Hobart or draw

70%

South Hobart or Kingborough Lions

81%

Draw or Kingborough Lions

49%

Winning margin

South Hobart wins by 2+

32%

Kingborough Lions wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

South Hobart 1+ goals

92%

South Hobart 2+ goals

72%

South Hobart 3+ goals

47%

Kingborough Lions 1+ goals

86%

Kingborough Lions 2+ goals

58%

Kingborough Lions 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

South Hobart (draw refunded)

63%

Kingborough Lions (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Hobart at home — creates 3.26, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Kingborough Lions away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.90 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Hobart attack 3.26 + Kingborough Lions defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.58

Kingborough Lions attack 2.62 + South Hobart defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

South Hobart scores more

51%

level

19%

Kingborough Lions scores more

30%

South Hobart at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "South Hobart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff