Kingborough Lions 2–3 South Hobart: Result & Stats

Kingborough Lions

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

South Hobart

5/24/2025

Tasmania NPL · Round 8Clennett's Lightwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kingborough Lions33%

×Draw20%

South Hobart47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kingborough LionsExpected goals in this matchSouth Hobart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

2.25

Kingborough Lions

1.86

South Hobart

2.25

South Hobart creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 59 away

2.64

creates per match

2.92

1.59

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Kingborough Lions

2.64

South Hobart

2.92

allows per match

Kingborough Lions

1.59

South Hobart

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kingborough Lions+0.00on par

South Hobart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingborough Lions ↓

South Hobart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Kingborough Lions or draw

53%

Kingborough Lions or South Hobart

80%

Draw or South Hobart

67%

Winning margin

Kingborough Lions wins by 2+

17%

South Hobart wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Kingborough Lions 1+ goals

84%

Kingborough Lions 2+ goals

55%

Kingborough Lions 3+ goals

28%

South Hobart 1+ goals

89%

South Hobart 2+ goals

65%

South Hobart 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Kingborough Lions (draw refunded)

41%

South Hobart (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingborough Lions at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

South Hobart away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingborough Lions attack 2.64 + South Hobart defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

South Hobart attack 2.92 + Kingborough Lions defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kingborough Lions scores more

33%

level

20%

South Hobart scores more

47%

South Hobart at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "South Hobart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff