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South Hobart II vs Glenorchy Knights U21 — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

South Hobart II
South Hobart II
FT
7 – 2
Glenorchy Knights U21
Glenorchy Knights U21
3/17/2024Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 1Darcy Street Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

South Hobart II83%
×Draw9%
Glenorchy Knights U218%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Hobart II
4.80
Glenorchy Knights U21
1.58

South Hobart II creates 204% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

South Hobart II
4.00
Glenorchy Knights U21
1.07

allows per match

South Hobart II
2.08
Glenorchy Knights U21
5.60

finishing

South Hobart II+0.00on par
Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Hobart II ↓

Glenorchy Knights U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

South Hobart II or draw
92%
South Hobart II or Glenorchy Knights U21
91%
Draw or Glenorchy Knights U21
17%

Winning margin

South Hobart II wins by 2+
69%
Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

South Hobart II 1+ goals
99%
South Hobart II 2+ goals
94%
South Hobart II 3+ goals
82%
Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals
79%
Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals
47%
Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

South Hobart II (draw refunded)
92%
Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Hobart II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

Glenorchy Knights U21 away — creates 1.07, concedes 5.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Hobart II attack 4.00 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 5.60 → ÷2 → 4.80

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 1.07 + South Hobart II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

South Hobart II scores more
83%
level
9%
Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more
8%

South Hobart II at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "South Hobart II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Hobart II 7 – 2 Glenorchy Knights U21

South Hobart II beat Glenorchy Knights U21 7-2 in Tasmania Southern Championship on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Darcy Street Ground in South Hobart.