Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Glenorchy Knights U21 vs South Hobart II — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Glenorchy Knights U21
Glenorchy Knights U21
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
South Hobart II
South Hobart II
8/17/2024Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 19KGV Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Glenorchy Knights U2121%
×Draw16%
South Hobart II63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glenorchy Knights U21
2.08
South Hobart II
3.53

South Hobart II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Glenorchy Knights U21
2.05
South Hobart II
2.59

allows per match

Glenorchy Knights U21
4.47
South Hobart II
2.11

finishing

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par
South Hobart II+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenorchy Knights U21 ↓

South Hobart II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Glenorchy Knights U21 or draw
37%
Glenorchy Knights U21 or South Hobart II
84%
Draw or South Hobart II
79%

Winning margin

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+
10%
South Hobart II wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals
87%
Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals
61%
Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals
34%
South Hobart II 1+ goals
97%
South Hobart II 2+ goals
86%
South Hobart II 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)
25%
South Hobart II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenorchy Knights U21 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 4.47 · 19 matches

South Hobart II away — creates 2.59, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 2.05 + South Hobart II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.08

South Hobart II attack 2.59 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 4.47 → ÷2 → 3.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more
21%
level
16%
South Hobart II scores more
63%

South Hobart II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "South Hobart II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Southern Championship: Glenorchy Knights U21 1–2 South Hobart II

South Hobart II beat Glenorchy Knights U21 2-1 in Tasmania Southern Championship on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at KGV Football Park in Hobart.