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South Cardiff vs Belmont Swansea — NNSW League 1 2026

South Cardiff
South Cardiff
FT
0 – 6
Belmont Swansea
Belmont Swansea
3/16/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 4Ulinga Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

South Cardiff14%
×Draw16%
Belmont Swansea70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Cardiff
1.15
Belmont Swansea
2.73

Belmont Swansea creates 137% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

creates per match

South Cardiff
1.29
Belmont Swansea
2.92

allows per match

South Cardiff
2.54
Belmont Swansea
1.00

finishing

South Cardiff+0.00on par
Belmont Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Cardiff ↓

Belmont Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

South Cardiff or draw
30%
South Cardiff or Belmont Swansea
84%
Draw or Belmont Swansea
86%

Winning margin

South Cardiff wins by 2+
5%
Belmont Swansea wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

South Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
11%
Belmont Swansea 1+ goals
93%
Belmont Swansea 2+ goals
75%
Belmont Swansea 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

South Cardiff (draw refunded)
17%
Belmont Swansea (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Cardiff at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.54 · 28 matches

Belmont Swansea away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Cardiff attack 1.29 + Belmont Swansea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Belmont Swansea attack 2.92 + South Cardiff defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

South Cardiff scores more
14%
level
16%
Belmont Swansea scores more
70%

Belmont Swansea at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Belmont Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: South Cardiff 0–6 Belmont Swansea

Belmont Swansea beat South Cardiff 6-0 in NNSW League 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Ulinga Oval in Newcastle.