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Belmont Swansea vs South Cardiff — NNSW League 1 2026

Belmont Swansea
Belmont Swansea
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
South Cardiff
South Cardiff
Unknown 54', 45', 36', 33', 28', 15'
6/4/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 13Blacksmiths Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Belmont Swansea73%
×Draw15%
South Cardiff12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belmont Swansea
2.87
South Cardiff
1.08

Belmont Swansea creates 166% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 28 away

creates per match

Belmont Swansea
4.17
South Cardiff
1.25

allows per match

Belmont Swansea
0.92
South Cardiff
1.57

finishing

Belmont Swansea+0.00on par
South Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belmont Swansea ↓

South Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Belmont Swansea or draw
88%
Belmont Swansea or South Cardiff
85%
Draw or South Cardiff
27%

Winning margin

Belmont Swansea wins by 2+
53%
South Cardiff wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Belmont Swansea 1+ goals
94%
Belmont Swansea 2+ goals
77%
Belmont Swansea 3+ goals
53%
South Cardiff 1+ goals
66%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
29%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Belmont Swansea (draw refunded)
86%
South Cardiff (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belmont Swansea at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

South Cardiff away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belmont Swansea attack 4.17 + South Cardiff defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.87

South Cardiff attack 1.25 + Belmont Swansea defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Belmont Swansea scores more
73%
level
15%
South Cardiff scores more
12%

Belmont Swansea at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Belmont Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
28'
33'
36'
45'
49'
54'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Belmont Swansea 6–0 South Cardiff

Belmont Swansea beat South Cardiff 6-0 in NNSW League 1 on June 4, 2024.

Goals: ? (15', 28', 33', 36', 45', 54').

The match was played at Blacksmiths Oval in Blacksmiths.