South Bend Lions 0–3 Oakland County: Result & Stats

South Bend Lions

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Oakland County

5/27/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 4Leighton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

South Bend Lions40%

×Draw23%

Oakland County37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Bend LionsExpected goals in this matchOakland County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.65

South Bend Lions

1.73

Oakland County

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 40 away

1.52

creates per match

1.63

1.67

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

South Bend Lions

1.52

Oakland County

1.63

allows per match

South Bend Lions

1.67

Oakland County

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Oakland County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Oakland County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw

63%

South Bend Lions or Oakland County

77%

Draw or Oakland County

60%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+

21%

Oakland County wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals

82%

South Bend Lions 2+ goals

52%

South Bend Lions 3+ goals

25%

Oakland County 1+ goals

81%

Oakland County 2+ goals

49%

Oakland County 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)

52%

Oakland County (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Oakland County away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Oakland County defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Oakland County attack 1.63 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

South Bend Lions scores more

40%

level

23%

Oakland County scores more

37%

South Bend Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Bend Lions vs Oakland County

Oakland County beat South Bend Lions 3-0 in USL League Two on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Leighton Stadium in South Bend, Indiana.

South Bend Lions vs Oakland County — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: South Bend Lions vs Oakland County