Oakland County 2–1 South Bend Lions: Result & Stats

Oakland County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

South Bend Lions

6/10/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 8Royal Oaks High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Oakland County52%

×Draw20%

South Bend Lions28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oakland CountyExpected goals in this matchSouth Bend Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.71

Oakland County

2.36

South Bend Lions

1.71

Oakland County creates 38% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 28 away

2.08

creates per match

1.50

1.92

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Oakland County

2.08

South Bend Lions

1.50

allows per match

Oakland County

1.92

South Bend Lions

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oakland County+0.00on par

South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland County ↓

South Bend Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Oakland County or draw

72%

Oakland County or South Bend Lions

80%

Draw or South Bend Lions

48%

Winning margin

Oakland County wins by 2+

32%

South Bend Lions wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oakland County 1+ goals

90%

Oakland County 2+ goals

68%

Oakland County 3+ goals

41%

South Bend Lions 1+ goals

82%

South Bend Lions 2+ goals

51%

South Bend Lions 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Oakland County (draw refunded)

65%

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland County at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland County attack 2.08 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.36

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Oakland County defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oakland County scores more

52%

level

20%

South Bend Lions scores more

28%

Oakland County at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oakland County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff