South Bend Lions 2–2 Lansing City: Result & Stats

South Bend Lions

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lansing City

6/8/2024

USL League Two · Central Conference - 8Leighton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

South Bend Lions52%

×Draw23%

Lansing City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Bend LionsExpected goals in this matchLansing City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.23

South Bend Lions

1.84

Lansing City

1.23

South Bend Lions creates 50% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

1.52

creates per match

0.78

1.67

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

South Bend Lions

1.52

Lansing City

0.78

allows per match

South Bend Lions

1.67

Lansing City

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Lansing City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Lansing City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw

74%

South Bend Lions or Lansing City

77%

Draw or Lansing City

48%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+

29%

Lansing City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals

84%

South Bend Lions 2+ goals

55%

South Bend Lions 3+ goals

28%

Lansing City 1+ goals

71%

Lansing City 2+ goals

35%

Lansing City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)

67%

Lansing City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Lansing City away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Lansing City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lansing City attack 0.78 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

South Bend Lions scores more

52%

level

23%

Lansing City scores more

26%

South Bend Lions at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff