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Lansing City vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Lansing City
Lansing City
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/18/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 10Grand Ledge Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lansing City39%
×Draw21%
South Bend Lions40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lansing City
1.99
South Bend Lions
2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lansing City
1.34
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Lansing City
2.56
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Lansing City+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lansing City ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Lansing City or draw
60%
Lansing City or South Bend Lions
79%
Draw or South Bend Lions
61%

Winning margin

Lansing City wins by 2+
21%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lansing City 1+ goals
86%
Lansing City 2+ goals
59%
Lansing City 3+ goals
32%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
87%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
60%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Lansing City (draw refunded)
49%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lansing City at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.56 · 32 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lansing City attack 1.34 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.99

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Lansing City defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lansing City scores more
39%
level
21%
South Bend Lions scores more
40%

South Bend Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Lansing City 7–0 South Bend Lions

Lansing City beat South Bend Lions 7-0 in USL League Two on June 18, 2024.

The match was played at Grand Ledge Community Stadium in Grand Ledge, Michigan.