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South Bend Lions vs Kings Hammer — USL League Two 2018

South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
FT
0 – 0
Kings Hammer
Kings Hammer
6/16/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 27South Bend Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

South Bend Lions36%
×Draw24%
Kings Hammer40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Bend Lions
1.54
Kings Hammer
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

South Bend Lions
1.52
Kings Hammer
1.61

allows per match

South Bend Lions
1.67
Kings Hammer
1.55

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par
Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Kings Hammer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw
60%
South Bend Lions or Kings Hammer
76%
Draw or Kings Hammer
64%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+
17%
Kings Hammer wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals
79%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
45%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
20%
Kings Hammer 1+ goals
81%
Kings Hammer 2+ goals
49%
Kings Hammer 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
47%
Kings Hammer (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Kings Hammer away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Kings Hammer defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kings Hammer attack 1.61 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

South Bend Lions scores more
36%
level
24%
Kings Hammer scores more
40%

Kings Hammer at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kings Hammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: South Bend Lions 0–0 Kings Hammer

South Bend Lions and Kings Hammer drew 0-0 in USL League Two on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at South Bend Lions Stadium in South Bend, Indiana.