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Kings Hammer vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Kings Hammer
Kings Hammer
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/17/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 38Bishop Brossart Mustang Athletic Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kings Hammer52%
×Draw21%
South Bend Lions27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kings Hammer
2.13
South Bend Lions
1.48

Kings Hammer creates 44% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kings Hammer
1.63
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Kings Hammer
1.47
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Kings Hammer+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kings Hammer ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kings Hammer or draw
73%
Kings Hammer or South Bend Lions
79%
Draw or South Bend Lions
48%

Winning margin

Kings Hammer wins by 2+
31%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kings Hammer 1+ goals
88%
Kings Hammer 2+ goals
63%
Kings Hammer 3+ goals
35%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
77%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
43%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kings Hammer (draw refunded)
66%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kings Hammer at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kings Hammer attack 1.63 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.13

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Kings Hammer defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kings Hammer scores more
52%
level
21%
South Bend Lions scores more
27%

Kings Hammer at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kings Hammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kings Hammer vs South Bend Lions

Kings Hammer beat South Bend Lions 2-1 in USL League Two on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Bishop Brossart Mustang Athletic Complex in Alexandria, Kentucky.