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South Bend Lions vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2018

South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
FT
0 – 6
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
7/7/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 15Newton Park Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

South Bend Lions33%
×Draw22%
Ann Arbor45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Bend Lions
1.57
Ann Arbor
1.88

Ann Arbor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

South Bend Lions
1.52
Ann Arbor
2.08

allows per match

South Bend Lions
1.67
Ann Arbor
1.62

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw
55%
South Bend Lions or Ann Arbor
78%
Draw or Ann Arbor
67%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+
15%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals
79%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
46%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
21%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
85%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
56%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
42%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Ann Arbor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ann Arbor attack 2.08 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

South Bend Lions scores more
33%
level
22%
Ann Arbor scores more
45%

Ann Arbor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: South Bend Lions 0–6 Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor beat South Bend Lions 6-0 in USL League Two on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Newton Park Field 3 in Lakeville, Indiana.