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Ann Arbor vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
FT
3 – 1
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/24/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 11Hollway Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ann Arbor62%
×Draw19%
South Bend Lions19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ann Arbor
2.38
South Bend Lions
1.27

Ann Arbor creates 87% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ann Arbor
2.12
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Ann Arbor
1.04
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw
81%
Ann Arbor or South Bend Lions
81%
Draw or South Bend Lions
38%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+
40%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals
91%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
68%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
42%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
72%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
36%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
76%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 2.12 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.38

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Ann Arbor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ann Arbor scores more
62%
level
19%
South Bend Lions scores more
19%

Ann Arbor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ann Arbor vs South Bend Lions

Ann Arbor beat South Bend Lions 3-1 in USL League Two on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Hollway Field in Ann Arbor, Michigan.