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South Africa vs Nigeria — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

South Africa
South Africa
FT
1 – 1
Nigeria
Nigeria
11/17/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 6FNB Stadium (Soccer City) (Johannesburg, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

South Africa38%
×Draw28%
Nigeria33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa
1.20
Nigeria
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

South Africa
1.67
Nigeria
1.64

allows per match

South Africa
0.56
Nigeria
0.73

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par
Nigeria+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Nigeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

South Africa or draw
67%
South Africa or Nigeria
72%
Draw or Nigeria
62%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+
16%
Nigeria wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals
70%
South Africa 2+ goals
34%
South Africa 3+ goals
12%
Nigeria 1+ goals
67%
Nigeria 2+ goals
30%
Nigeria 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)
53%
Nigeria (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Nigeria away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.67 + Nigeria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nigeria attack 1.64 + South Africa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

South Africa scores more
38%
level
28%
Nigeria scores more
33%

South Africa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: South Africa 1–1 Nigeria

South Africa and Nigeria drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at FNB Stadium (Soccer City) (Johannesburg, GA).