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Nigeria vs South Africa — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Nigeria
Nigeriaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
South Africa
South Africa
7/10/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Quarter-finalsCairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Nigeria47%
×Draw27%
South Africa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nigeria
1.39
South Africa
0.96

Nigeria creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Nigeria
1.88
South Africa
1.10

allows per match

Nigeria
0.82
South Africa
0.90

finishing

Nigeria+0.00on par
South Africa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nigeria ↓

South Africa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nigeria or draw
74%
Nigeria or South Africa
73%
Draw or South Africa
53%

Winning margin

Nigeria wins by 2+
22%
South Africa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nigeria 1+ goals
75%
Nigeria 2+ goals
40%
Nigeria 3+ goals
16%
South Africa 1+ goals
62%
South Africa 2+ goals
25%
South Africa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nigeria (draw refunded)
64%
South Africa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nigeria at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

South Africa away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nigeria attack 1.88 + South Africa defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.39

South Africa attack 1.10 + Nigeria defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nigeria scores more
47%
level
27%
South Africa scores more
26%

Nigeria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nigeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nigeria vs South Africa

Nigeria beat South Africa 2-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on July 10, 2019.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.