South Africa 0–1 Morocco: Result & Stats

South Africa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Morocco

7/1/2019

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Al-Salam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

South Africa40%

×Draw30%

Morocco31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South AfricaExpected goals in this matchMorocco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.97

South Africa

1.15

Morocco

0.97

South Africa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.38

0.56

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

South Africa

1.67

Morocco

1.38

allows per match

South Africa

0.56

Morocco

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par

Morocco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Morocco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

South Africa or draw

69%

South Africa or Morocco

70%

Draw or Morocco

60%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+

17%

Morocco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals

68%

South Africa 2+ goals

32%

South Africa 3+ goals

11%

Morocco 1+ goals

62%

Morocco 2+ goals

25%

Morocco 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)

57%

Morocco (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Morocco away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.67 + Morocco defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Morocco attack 1.38 + South Africa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

South Africa scores more

40%

level

30%

Morocco scores more

31%

South Africa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff