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Morocco vs South Africa — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Morocco
Morocco
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
South Africa
South Africaadvanced
1/30/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade Laurent Pokou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Morocco47%
×Draw30%
South Africa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morocco
1.20
South Africa
0.73

Morocco creates 64% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Morocco
1.50
South Africa
1.10

allows per match

Morocco
0.36
South Africa
0.90

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par
South Africa+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

South Africa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Morocco or draw
77%
Morocco or South Africa
70%
Draw or South Africa
53%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+
21%
South Africa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals
70%
Morocco 2+ goals
34%
Morocco 3+ goals
12%
South Africa 1+ goals
52%
South Africa 2+ goals
17%
South Africa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)
68%
South Africa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

South Africa away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.50 + South Africa defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.20

South Africa attack 1.10 + Morocco defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Morocco scores more
47%
level
30%
South Africa scores more
23%

Morocco at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morocco vs South Africa

South Africa beat Morocco 2-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Laurent Pokou in San-Pedro.