South Africa 2–1 Mali: Result & Stats | Friendlies

South Africa

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mali

10/13/2019

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium (Port Elizabeth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

South Africa52%

×Draw30%

Mali18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South AfricaExpected goals in this matchMali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.59

South Africa

1.22

Mali

0.59

South Africa creates 107% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.37

creates per match

0.50

0.68

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

South Africa

1.37

Mali

0.50

allows per match

South Africa

0.68

Mali

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par

Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Mali →

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

South Africa or draw

82%

South Africa or Mali

70%

Draw or Mali

48%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+

24%

Mali wins by 2+

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals

70%

South Africa 2+ goals

34%

South Africa 3+ goals

12%

Mali 1+ goals

45%

Mali 2+ goals

12%

Mali 3+ goals

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)

74%

Mali (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Mali away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.37 + Mali defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mali attack 0.50 + South Africa defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

South Africa scores more

52%

level

30%

Mali scores more

18%

South Africa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff