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Mali vs South Africa — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Mali
Mali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
South Africa
South Africa
1/16/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade Amadou Gon Coulibaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mali46%
×Draw29%
South Africa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
1.25
South Africa
0.85

Mali creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mali
1.60
South Africa
1.10

allows per match

Mali
0.60
South Africa
0.90

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
South Africa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

South Africa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mali or draw
75%
Mali or South Africa
71%
Draw or South Africa
54%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
21%
South Africa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
71%
Mali 2+ goals
36%
Mali 3+ goals
13%
South Africa 1+ goals
57%
South Africa 2+ goals
21%
South Africa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
64%
South Africa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

South Africa away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 1.60 + South Africa defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.25

South Africa attack 1.10 + Mali defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mali scores more
46%
level
29%
South Africa scores more
25%

Mali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Mali 2–0 South Africa

Mali beat South Africa 2-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Amadou Gon Coulibaly in Korhogo.