South Africa 1–1 Angola: Result & Stats

South Africa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Angola

Z. Lepasa 28' (pen)

Zini 20'

11/20/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Mbombela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

South Africa48%

×Draw33%

Angola20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South AfricaExpected goals in this matchAngola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.59

South Africa

1.10

Angola

0.59

South Africa creates 86% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

1.37

creates per match

0.50

0.68

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

South Africa

1.37

Angola

0.50

allows per match

South Africa

0.68

Angola

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par

Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Angola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

South Africa or draw

80%

South Africa or Angola

67%

Draw or Angola

52%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+

20%

Angola wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals

67%

South Africa 2+ goals

30%

South Africa 3+ goals

10%

Angola 1+ goals

45%

Angola 2+ goals

12%

Angola 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)

71%

Angola (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Angola away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.37 + Angola defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Angola attack 0.50 + South Africa defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

South Africa scores more

48%

level

33%

Angola scores more

20%

South Africa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Megue

Angola · M

7.6

Match Events

20'

Zini↳ Megue

26'

Zini

28'

Z. LepasaPenalty

40'

A. Mabululu

45+4'

G. Kekana← S. Xulu

60'

B. Hlongwane← F. Lakay

61'

M. Timm← T. Zwane

64'

Gilberto← Zini

64'

Vá← Jaredi Teixeira

71'

M. Saleng← K. Sekgota

71'

K. Mayo← Z. Lepasa

74'

Alem

74'

77'

77'

78'

90+1'

90+1'

António Hossi← Domingos Razão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthAngola

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots12

4Corners5

19Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target6

6Off Target4

0Blocked2

3Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

466Total Passes391

389Accurate Passes315

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0