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South Africa vs Angola — Friendlies 2026

South Africa
South Africa
CANC
00:00
Angola
Angola
6/19/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Police Officers Club Stadium (Dubayy (Dubai))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

South Africa48%
×Draw33%
Angola20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa
1.10
Angola
0.59

South Africa creates 86% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

South Africa
1.37
Angola
0.50

allows per match

South Africa
0.68
Angola
0.83

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par
Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Angola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

South Africa or draw
80%
South Africa or Angola
67%
Draw or Angola
52%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+
20%
Angola wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals
67%
South Africa 2+ goals
30%
South Africa 3+ goals
10%
Angola 1+ goals
45%
Angola 2+ goals
12%
Angola 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)
71%
Angola (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Angola away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.37 + Angola defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Angola attack 0.50 + South Africa defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

South Africa scores more
48%
level
33%
Angola scores more
20%

South Africa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: South Africa host Angola

June 19, 2019: South Africa take on Angola in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

South Africa host Angola at Police Officers Club Stadium (Dubayy (Dubai)).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.