South Adelaide Panthers 1–1 FK Beograd

South Adelaide Panthers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Beograd

5/28/2022

South Australia NPL · Round 12O'Sullivans Beach Sports & Community Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

South Adelaide Panthers31%

×Draw22%

FK Beograd47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Adelaide PanthersExpected goals in this matchFK Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

2.02

South Adelaide Panthers

1.62

FK Beograd

2.02

FK Beograd creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 53 away

1.54

creates per match

1.68

2.35

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

South Adelaide Panthers

1.54

FK Beograd

1.68

allows per match

South Adelaide Panthers

2.35

FK Beograd

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par

FK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Adelaide Panthers ↓

FK Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

South Adelaide Panthers or draw

53%

South Adelaide Panthers or FK Beograd

78%

Draw or FK Beograd

69%

Winning margin

South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+

15%

FK Beograd wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals

80%

South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals

48%

South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals

22%

FK Beograd 1+ goals

87%

FK Beograd 2+ goals

60%

FK Beograd 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)

40%

FK Beograd (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Adelaide Panthers at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

FK Beograd away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.54 + FK Beograd defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.62

FK Beograd attack 1.68 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

South Adelaide Panthers scores more

31%

level

22%

FK Beograd scores more

47%

FK Beograd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff